“Well, shit. How anticlimatic would be a Taiga vs Yui final… I sorta kinda want it now.” - overfunk (before the semi-final matches)

The Numbers

21920 – Total votes since the top 16

3832 – Posts on Animesuki’s Saimoe thread as of writing this post

386 – Contestants in the main draw

101 – Shows respresented in the main draw

73 – Days since the tournament began

8 – Contestant Blocks

6 – Rookies in the quarterfinals

1 – Anime Saimoe Japan 2009 Champion

There is something magical about Saimoe that captivates me more than any major sporting event can: direct participation, friend interest, hype factor, and a chance to support characters in the entertainment medium I love the most. This time, I have gathered information from sources outside the blog team to go along with the usual six of us. So, without further ado, I present the final match. Enjoy. Poster courtesy of frustra.

Seishi, chaosprophet, uis, KholdStare, kevo, Teiran, Guest Writers

The Contestants

Taiga Aisaka – Toradora!

• Semi-finals def Nodoka Haramura (1077 – 998)
• Quarter-finals def Isumi Saginomiya (812 – 736)
• 4th round def Azusa Nakano (825 – 711)
• 3rd round def Maria (850 – 725)

She’s the “little tiger that could”…possibly win three Saimoe tournaments this year. 2009′s super rookie performer looks to take yet another step into multi-national Saimoe lore by taking Japan’s tournament. With Ami, Minori, and Taiga’s performances, Toradora! emerged as a legitimate faction. With the story already completed in just one season of anime, can Taiga bring a title to a fanbase that might never see her in this tournament again?

Yui Hirasawa – K-ON!

• Semi-final def Mihoko Fukuji (1019 – 988)
• Quarter-final def Koromo Amae (873 – 819)
• 4th round def Minori Kushieda (838-752)
• 3rd round def Hinagiku Katsura (953 – 935)

Since the second round, Yui has been running the gauntlet. With a seemingly down-and-out K-ON! faction, Yui began one of the most amazing runs in Saimoe history. Here and now at the stage of her dreams, can she rock Taiga off her game?

The Team

Seishi: Taiga – How fitting it is that these two contestants meet again so many months after their original preliminary battle. Taiga will be looking to avenge Minori’s loss, with Yui carrying Azusa on her back. Unfortunately for Yui, my unconditional love goes out to Taiga as one of the greatest anime characters I’ve ever seen. I think Taiga will take it in one of the closest and best Saimoe matches ever; whatever happens, I believe both are deserving champions and will remember their tournament performances very fondly.

chaosprophet: Yui – After a long period with many moments of bliss and many of despair, the final finally is here, and what a final it will be! On one side we have Taiga, a pretty good character that really deserves to be there. She beat many strong characters on the way, like Nodoka who was one of the favorites to win by many people on the late game; one can see how she had an excellent performance in other saimoe contests too, that she being there isn’t a joke at all.
On the other side we have Yui, who is just as deserving as Taiga for a place in the finals; she defeated many strong contestants, like Hinagiku who was regarded as one of the strongest competitors. I’m really proud of what she did so far, even more considering how K-ON! did in the beginning and how she’s usually overshadowed by Mio for many K-ON! fans.
In the end, it’s an ideal final for me and a win-win situation too, but my vote will go for Yui without a doubt. I like Taiga a lot, but Yui is one of the characters I love the most.
This match is really hard to predict. Yui beat Taiga before when they were part of the same group in prelims, but that was a long time ago when there were much less voters, and prelims dynamics were really different from the main round ones. Considering their opponents and amount of votes, Yui had a better performance overall; but looking at the semifinals results, Taiga seems to be stronger. Taiga may lose votes because people don’t want her to win another major moe contest in the same year, however she may get some votes because people want to see her getting the crown for both Korea and Japan. This is not unprecended, but it may never happen again. Also, both characters have strong factions behind them.
I will go with Yui for prediction, more for bias than anything else. All in all, it should be a very exciting match. May moe prevail!

uis: Yui – I am happy my number one that I support this year is in the final. Only one more before you are the champion, Yui…

KholdStare: Yui – Taiga receives more hate than support. No one really hates K-ON!, Yui isn’t associated with “KyoAni” so much as LS characters, etc…, and she has no backlash at all incredibly, even from SAKI supporters. It’s the finals, and people are likely to vote if they can even if they don’t support one of the two charaters, and especially if it’s hate-voting. Therefore, my prediction is Yui.

kevo: Yui, Taiga – When the top 16 was announced, I expected Taiga vs. Yui to be the most exciting, closest match possible. Though Saki broke records by sending six girls into the top 16, history repeats itself and the Saki characters are out of the finals. Taiga is fresh off her Korea Best Moe win and took care of Nodoka solidly to get into the finals. Yui has had the stronger schedule and came from behind to overtake Mihoko in the nick of time. Now, the two girls square off for the biggest title of moe. When you compare schedules, Yui has definately had the harder schedule getting here, with wins over Amae Koromo, Furude Rika, and Katsura Hinagiku in her name. Taiga took down a strong Maria and overcame a split vote to beat Kawashima Ami and Asahina Mikuru early in the tournament. Of all the Saimoe finals I’ve seen, this is one of the toughest to call. I believe that Taiga’s Korea Best Moe title might affect her votes, but it should not make or break her. Yui literally has no weakness; she has no point of attack like the Saki characters do, and the anti-Kyoto Animation base seemingly has disappeared. K-ON!’s faction is back and seemingly in good form. I love both characters, but in my heart I am leaning for Taiga just a sliver. I would give Yui the 55-45 advantage, however. Prediction: Yui by 20.

Teiran:  Yui.  I wasn’t just paying lip service with my comment that it seemed almost natural for the would-be guitarist to be left standing at the last, but in saying that I feel like I might have shorted Taiga (no pun intended).  Her fanbase came through admirably in the semifinal match, and her place in this final is equally deserved.  This one’ll be good for sure; both Taiga and Yui have some luminaries on their respective hit lists.  I’ll go with the guitarist here, using much the same reasoning as I did for Mihoko’s victory over Yuuki:  I can’t sense a concerted anti-movement against her.

(It’s interesting for me to read my colleagues’ takes on this, even if their reasoning is divergent from my own.  KS says Yui won’t face any backlash, but I don’t entirely agree with that – despite the “universal appeal” spiel above, everyone in this tournament who survives past a certain stage faces some backlash, and this is the final, so you can bet that stage is long past.  I also don’t believe for a second that whatever happens in Korea’s Best Moe tournament has any bearing at all on Saimoe.  As for factions’ machinations, those are far too convoluted for me to unravel; I might kill more brain cells in trying than in leaving well enough alone.)

Vizard: Yui, Taiga – It’s been a pretty hectic and long 2009 year for the Saimoe tournament of Japan. I don’t really care for Yui as she never really appealed to me. Taiga’s cool though. I can’t vote for her due to chaosprophet voting for Yui. I predict Yui to win mainly because of K-ON! being the latest to air whereas Toradora! started in the fall of 2008 and ended shortly before K-ON! aired. Also, the voters coinciding between Korean Best Moe and Japan Saimoe will conflict as I’m assuming they don’t want a ‘winner in both tournaments’ and whatnot.

raizoo: Yui – If Taiga loses, I’m going to go back to laughing how Kugyuu hasn’t won a saimoe yet. I hope Yui wins because she beat Hina so she better win the whole thing.

Micchi: Taiga, Yui – Both are top tier chars deserving to get this far, although Yui has arguably had the tougher route. While I want Yui to win, it’ll come down to the little things that will push Taiga to victory, such as the possibility of a double crown for Taiga or the reluctance of choosing another KyoAni champion.

overfunk: Yui, Taiga – Yui beat Taiga in the strength match at the start since preliminaries have no real strategy going on. Toradora! truly showed up as a smart faction: Mikuru gambit! Yui beat powerful opponents in a string: Rika, Hina, Minorin, Kodomo, and Kyaputen.  The revenge weight should be on Yui since Taiga beat Ami (whose fans already dislike her), Maria, then Azusa, which was sort of like a rook change with Yui. Then, Isumi and Nodoka. So, both have pissed off the former Hayate no Gotoku! and Saki factions. However, Hayate and Toradora! are both part of J.C. STaff realm, so there shouldn’t be many Hayate fans disgruntled with Taiga; especially Nagi fans, if you catch my drift. So, Taiga has less revenge weight. Now, the X-Factor: any of the two could have controlled the semi-finals from the shadows, since the vote totals rose. I fear it might have been Yui. Based on statistics, it seems like 51-49 in favour of Yui.

neutralizer: Yui – A girl and her guitar. Even though Yui beat out Hinagiku, she’s got my vote for being adorable while airheaded throughout all of K-ON, but inspiring and hilarious to laugh at. The match is too close of a call to predict, I think they’d be separated by very few votes and so I’m might as well predict the one I want to win. No sense in not believing in her win.

And now, some further analysis by a dear friend from AnimeSuki, NissanNut. Be sure to give him props wherever needed.

We’ve finally made it to the championship match of the 2009 Anime Saimoe tournament! Aisaka Taiga of Toradora! versus Hirasawa Yui of K-ON! As expected, we’ve seen the unexpected in this year’s tournament. Favorites falling early (Akiyama Mio), surprise winners (Minami Kana, Sawamura Tomoki, Touyoko Momoko), upsets (Mio, Katsura Hinagiku), ridiculous faction / anti-faction voting, a near takeover of a mahjong anime empire (-Saki-), intriguing back stories… all leading to this one final match to determine this year’s champion.

While none of my favorites ([Takei Hisa, Tsukishima Aoba ) made it to the final, I’m still as excited about this final as much as I would be had at least one of my favorites were contesting for the title.

Now on to the my thoughts, pick and prediction!

Both characters are strong and the numbers suggest so.

Total Votes
Yui – 5237
Taiga – 5016

The top 2 vote-getters leading into the semis, meeting in the finals? I’m expecting votes in excess of 1300 votes for both girls in a year where voter turnout seems to have been low compared to previous years.

Percentage Votes
Taiga
Round 3 – 53.97% (9)
Round 4 – 53.71% (4)
Quarterfinals – 52.45% (2)
Semifinals – 51.90% (1)

Yui
Round 3 – 50.48% (14)
Round 4 – 52.70% (5)
Quarterfinal – 51.60% (4)
Semifinals – 50.77% (2)

I’m a big believer that percentage of votes a character receives from round to round is an excellent indicator of how that character will do during the next match. From Round 3 on, Taiga has fared a little better in her matches than Yui. Expect that trend to continue!

Head to Head
Yui – 621 (1)
Taiga – 594 (2)

Surprisingly, these two have met in this year’s tournament. They were both in group 13 of the 1st Prelims, where Yui and Taiga finished 1-2, respectively. Supporters of both girls will surely have not forgotten this result. This provides an excellent back story to a much anticipated final!

Notable Eliminations
Taiga
Kawashima Ami (Toradora!), Maria (Hayate no Gotoku!!), Nakano Azusa (K-ON!)

Taiga has knocked out her fellow Toradora! representative Ami and a strong HnG!! girl in Maria. She’s even taken down one K-ON! girl already – a strong title contender in Azusa. Taiga is not afraid of the K-ON! powers, especially those that play lead guitar.

Yui
Furude Rika (Higurashi no Naku Koro ni), Katsura Hinagiku (Hayate no Gotoku!!), Kushieda Minori (Toradora!), Amae Koromo (-Saki-)

Yui eliminated 2007 champion Furude Rika and perennial favorite Hinagiku. She’s already eliminated a Toradora! rep in Minori, and recently took out loli mahjong sensation Koromo. Lolis are not safe from Yui.

My Thoughts
As much as I’d like for a non-loli character to win the championship, there’s no denying Taiga’s moe factor. Yui is moe in her own regard, but for me Taiga has that extra umph that puts her over the edge. Sure, Yui won the first head-to-head, but Taiga has been stronger in more recent rounds according to the numbers.

I’ll be voting for Taiga, and I expect a Taiga win based on her recent performances. It’ll be a race to 1300 or more with late surges for the one in second place with a few hours to go. However, it’s Taiga who will hang on to her lead and emerge as 2009 Saimoe champion.

The trend of Saimoe loli champions continues, and we must wait yet another year for a chance to have a non-loli winner.

Pick: Aisaka Taiga
Prediction: Aisaka Taiga